The May 2019 Frontline episode that described the feuding factions within the early Trump Administration also introduced perhaps one of the most compelling arguments for regionalism, at least from an American perspective. Professor Da Wei, the Assistant President of the University of International Relationships in Beijing, asked: China has four times the population of the United States—why shouldn’t its economy be four times larger?
Some Americans may see this as a benign objective, while others may find it shuddering. China’s economy was 73% that of the US economy in 2018, according to World Population Review. China’s growth plan, the China Model, calls for the gap to substantially close by 2025. It is an eventuality that China’s economy will someday eclipse the US economy.
Regionalism could change the equation. Just as Europe formed a union in part to compete with US, other parts of the world could strengthen their own position against a future China by forging closer economic ties. The combined population of North America, for example, is 565 million. While this is still considerably less than China’s 1.4 billion, it would give this region more economic leverage than it will otherwise have. Since China is already the size of a region, it is unlikely it will seek a similar arrangement with its neighbors. (One could also argue that their current form of government is at its maximum effective capacity, but more on that in future articles.)
Current US efforts focus on challenging China on unfair trade practices. While this may affect the near-term balance of trade, it is unlikely to change the long-term economic playing field. Regionalism offers an opportunity to make a strategic difference; however, it cannot be forced—it has to be part of a natural progression to succeed. The next set of articles will describe why it is a natural progression. They will also discuss the implications for world politics and the policy decisions needed to exploit it.