In June 2019, President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico if they did not do a better job at stopping migrants from crossing their country to the US. Tariffs would start at 5% and increase to 25% if transmigration were not curtailed. An Washington Post op-ed outlined the fallacy of this approach.
First, it’s not that Mexico is ignoring the problem. In May 2019, it apprehended 22,000 unauthorized immigrants; it apprehended roughly 80,000 in the first six months of the year. Like the US, Mexican immigration agencies are at maximum capacity and feeling overwhelmed. Threats are not likely to change this.
Moreover, imposing tariffs would be disastrous for both nations’ economies. Roughly 5 million US jobs are dependent upon US-Mexican trade—threatening this trade threatens these jobs. On average, Mexican manufactured goods contain about 40% US components; automotive parts may cross the US-Mexico border eight times as they progress through the supply chain. As such, the US is not importing goods from Mexico—we’re sharing in the creation of goods; a tariff on these goods is a tariff on American goods. Finally, US food exports to Mexico have risen 500% since NAFTA began; Mexico will be the largest importer of US corn this year. Counter-tariffs would hurt US farmers already straining from Chinese tariffs.
Clearly, the US and Mexican economies have become so intertwined that tariffs would do as much harm to the US as they would to Mexico (which is different from, say, the US and China). While some may see Trump’s tough talk as a bluff that worked, or as the only way to Mexico’s attention, such bluster comes at a cost to the relationship. It is time for nations to begin thinking regionally about their mutual problems, crafting strategies that work on a regional level. Knee-jerk reactions and bullying need to become a thing of the past.
References:
Carla Hills, “Sorry, but tariffs won’t stop migrants,” Washington Post op-ed, 9 Jun 2019, A21.