President Joe Biden has met with twelve heads-of-state since taking office. In each meeting, he delivered roughly the same message: America is Back. However, this may be more aspirational than reality—the damage of the last four years is not so easily brushed aside.
Joe Biden has shown an eagerness for America to re-engage the international community and restore America’s influence. He brought America back into the Paris climate agreement. He rejoined the World Health Organization. He returned America to the UN Human Rights Council. He has also shown willingness to reengage in the Iran nuclear deal. All of this, however, is being discounted. Many Europeans simply don’t believe they can trust the US anymore. Friend and foe alike doubt the longevity of American commitments, knowing that Trump or his facsimile could return in 2024. Instead, Europeans are talking about less reliance on America. There is talk about greater trade with China, taking more ownership of actions in the Middle East, creating a European Security Force in lieu of NATO, and even making Europe into a global power, alongside the US and China. France appears to be leading this charge for “strategic autonomy.” In short, Europe is charting a new path—away from the US.
Before the Trump Administration, I predicted that the US and EU would drift apart. Early in the Trump Administration, I predicted that his behavior would hasten the separation. Later in Trump’s tenure, I predicted that the next president would not be able to repair all the damage done. All of this has come true. It is true because regionalism—the gradual coalescing of political and economic entities around the world into regions—is unfolding. Donald Trump only accelerated the process.
While Biden may regain some of the trust America lost, things will never be same. Historians will remember these last few years as the beginning of the divergence between Europe and America. It was going to happen sooner or later. Trump just made it happen sooner.
Source: Anne Gearan, Ashley Parker, “US allies hedge bets after era of Trumpism,” Washington Post, 28 Feb 2021, A1; see https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-us-global-doubts/2021/02/27/3fe52862-781d-11eb-8115-9ad5e9c02117_story.html
Michael Birnbaum and Loveday Morris, “Europe to rely less on US regardless of election results,” Washington Post, 1 Nov 2020, A20, see https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/europe-trump-biden-election/2020/10/30/7f7e6a62-188a-11eb-8bda-814ca56e138b_story.html
Photo: European Council