So far, we have discussed the overarching strategy that Ukraine needs to win the war. We have also discussed the ground war, the information war, and the economic war. Now we cover the cyber war.
Many analysts have been surprised by the lack of an all-out cyber assault by Russia against Ukraine: only minor denial-of-service and wiper attacks, so far. Russia has launched large-scale attacks in the past. In 2017, NotPetya, a ransomware, spread across Europe, causing $10B in damage. Analysts conjecture why Russia has not yet launched a major attack: they weren’t coordinated; they did not want to destroy infrastructure they thought they would take-over quickly; they fear global retaliation; or perhaps it is happening, and no one knows it. Yet there is another explanation. Perhaps they are happening, and the Ukrainians are repelling them—which is what Ukraine says. Western allies did bolster Ukrainian cyber-defenses after the Russian annexation of Crimea. And it appears Ukraine has grown strong enough to go on the offensive. The “IT Army of Ukraine” is 270,000 to 400,000 volunteers that have been attacking Russian targets, including transportation and power networks, since the beginning of the war. Even Anonymous, the hacker collective, has declared war on Russia and hacked into a major Russian oil company.
Cyber emerged as a domain of warfare—along with land, sea, air, and space—due to advances in computer technology. Many analysts predicted this would be the first hybrid cyber-conventional war, though that hasn’t played out. It is possible that the Ukrainians have already gotten the upper hand, though, if they attacked logistics targets to help stall the Russia ground assault. We won’t know until after the war.
Ukraine has taken cyber seriously. By enlisting cyber-mercenaries, it has swollen the ranks of people capable of launching attacks. While cyber is not in the same league as high explosives for inflicting physical and psychological damage, a coordinated effort with other combined arms (artillery, air bombardment, armor) can play a devastating role. And it is possible that the main cyber war is still to come–initiated by either side.
Sources:
Natasha Ishak, “Is Russia Holding Back from Cyberwar?” VOX, 19 Mar 2022
Chris Krebs, “The Cyber Warfare Predicted in Ukraine May Be Yet to Come,” The Financial Times, 20 Mar 2020.
Thomas Rid, “Why You Haven’t Heard About the Secret Cyberwar in Ukraine,” New York Times, 18 Mar 2022.
Joe Tidy, “Ukraine says it is Fighting First Hybrid War,” 4 Mar 2022.\
Photo: New York Times