As regionalism progresses, each region will inevitably seek to establish its own identity. In November 2018, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed a desire to build a “real European army.” While many European leaders have mused about such notions in the past, they were never seriously considered once NATO was created in 1949. But with NATO’s value under scrutiny, more European leaders dare to bandy such ideas.
Such statements typically send flash warnings through the US foreign service. The US has long believed that such an army would divert resources earmarked for NATO to an organization over which the US has little control. Yet even Angela Merkel of Germany has expressed a willingness to contemplate a new paradigm, one where the US does not hold much as much sway.
BREXIT facilitates such ambitions. Britain has been America’s strongest ally in the EU. Loyal to its offspring, England was an ambassador for the US behind closed doors in Brussels. For Britain it was a two-way street—a strong US relationship was one of its greatest assets, and one it feared losing. As former prime minister John Major warned about BREXIT, he declared: “Our value as an ally of America will decline. Our friends, the Americans, are hardheaded about power. It is romantic folly to think otherwise. Be in no doubt—if the UK can no longer serve America’s interests in Europe, she will look elsewhere for someone who can.” With that in mind, Britain tamped down notions that would fracture the relationship. However, with BREXIT, Britain’s influence will wane, and it is doubtful the US will find another ally as loyal.
With technology and economics pushing regionalism, such events are inevitable. BREXIT may accelerate it. An administration’s willingness to berate our allies in public may accelerated it. But searching for one’s identity is human nature, and it will be for regions as well.
Reference: Washington Post, “On whom will the US rely after Britain leaves the EU?,” 25 Nov 2018.
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