The military leaders of 11 ECOWAS nations met in Accra, Ghana, to discuss the details of a potential invasion of Niger. The meeting was held in response to a coup that occurred on July 26. As one official summarized the meeting: “What is happening in Niger, if it succeeds, is the end of democracy in Africa… If we fight today, it is to prevent these kinds of things from happening and to ensure a future for our continent.”
Eleven member-nations of ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, have pledged to support an invasion of Niger, if called to do so. While support for intervention ran high, some nations are seeing internal pushback: Nigeria’s senate has expressed objections, and Ghana’s opposition party has questioned whether it has the authority to intervene under its constitution. In addition, the African Union’s peace and security council held a meeting where it eventually opposed intervention. While this is not binding on ECOWAS, the two organizations have historically moved in step with each other.
While having a supranational body, such as ECOWAS, oversee the stability of the region may be a long-term winning strategy for Africa, there is one additional consideration: Is the country ready for democracy? Niger had only been a democracy for a couple of years when a coup ended it—does this indicate the country was not ready for it? Does Niger have government institutions that promote a nationalism over any regime or ethnic group? Do checks-and-balances exist to prevent a dictator from reappearing if junta leaders were removed? Do people believe that democracy can address the underlying concerns that prompted the coup? Is Niger beyond the “tipping point”—where the people are anxious for democracy and have an intuitive grasp of the importance of rule-of-law? Without these, any government will likely revert to a dictatorship.
Since the coup, jihadists killed 17 soldiers in an ambush. This was the first attack on the army in six months. Jihadists are taking advantage of Niger’s distracted military and the end of US and French support the since the coup. Meanwhile, pro junta rallies occur almost daily. Thousands of people march through the streets, honk horns, yell “down with France,” and wave Russian flags. So the question remains: Will an intervention establish a long-term democracy capable of winning against jihadists? This must be answered before committing forces to an intervention.
Sources:
Peter Beaumont, “West African Bloc Prepared for Military Intervention After Niger Coup,” The Guardian, 17 August 2023; accessed from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/17/west-african-bloc-prepared-for-military-intervention-after-niger-coup
Sam Mednick, “11 Nations of West Africa Commit to a Military Deployment to Restore the Ousted President of Niger,” Associated Press, 18 August 2023; accessed from https://apnews.com/article/niger-coup-extremists
Photo: Richard Eshun Nanaresh (AP)
No responses yet