A couple of weeks ago, we looked at the US as an example of how immigration has fueled growth and GDP. Now we look at the other end the of spectrum: how the lack of immigration can cause a country to die.
Japan’s population is shrinking. Today, Japan has around 127 million people; by 2049, it could drop below 100 million. In Japan, the death rate is higher than the birthrate so the existing population is aging. In 1950, the median age was 22; today it is 48; by 2050, it will be 54 if something doesn’t change. The Japanese are simply not having enough children to sustain their population. As a result, 8 million houses across country stand vacant and rural villages are disappearing. This does not bode well for their economy either. A smaller population means labor shortages. Japan is adjusting to this by using more robots in everything from assembly lines, to hospitals, to restaurants; but these do not replace a stable workforce. Japan could augment its native-born workers with foreign workers, and in fact, in 2018, it loosened some restrictions on foreign workers. However, these guest workers receive a clear message upon arrival: Don’t plan to stay here. Housing discrimination against foreign workers is prevalent and “Japanese-only” sections are a common feature of bars and restaurants across the island nation.
This is the other side of the population-wealth connection. In this case, we see wealth declining as population declines. While Japan’s economic woes have many causes, as the World Economic Forum put it: “Getting growth from an aging, shrinking society is difficult.” Japan is so obsessed with keeping its population ethnically “pure” that it is willing to let its economy shrink rather than to allow immigration to bolster its faltering numbers.
This truth is that nearly every society has nearly always relied on immigration. Even the people commonly referred to as “English” today immigrated from Germany in the first millennium BCE. Japan doesn’t seem to realize that once its current population is gone, someone else will inhabit the islands it currently occupies.
Francisco Toro, “Japan is a Trumpian Paradise—and a Dying Country,” Washington Post, 1 Sep 2019, A25; also accessed from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/29/japan-is-trumpian-paradise-low-immigration-rates-its-also-dying-country/
Sasha Ingber, “Japan’s Population is in Rapid Decline,” NPR, 21 Dec 2018; accessed from https://www.npr.org/2018/12/21/679103541/japans-population-is-in-rapid-decline#:~:text=About%20127%20million%20people%20live,aging%20out%20of%20the%20workforce
Keith Breene, “Why is Japan’s Economy Shrinking?” World Economic Forum, 16 Feb 2016, accessed from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/why-is-japans-economy-shrinking/
Photo: Xavier College
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