Earlier this week, the Air Force suffered a set-back in its hypersonic weapons program when an Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) failed to detach and fire from the underside of the B-52 bomber carrying it high over the California desert. Both missile and plane returned safely to Edwards Air Force base, where engineers began scouring the data to find out what went wrong with the launch sequence.
Hypersonic technologies have been a major push in recent years by western powers. The Pentagon’s goal is to create a missile that can fly 20 times the speed of sound and an aircraft that can fly five times the speed of sound—both fast enough to outrun missile and air defense systems. Some experts believe a hypersonic aircraft engine may be operational by the mid-2030s. Russia and China are also performing hypersonic research. In 2016, Russia boasted that its Avangard glide vehicle could travel at 27 times the speed of sound. China reportedly tested its first hypersonic system in 2014 and claims its DF-ZF glide vehicle has flown nine times since then. Last year, acting Secretary of the Navy, Thomas Modly, said hypersonic weapons “have already changed the nature of the battlespace, much as nuclear technology did in the last century.”
Hypersonics has the potential to become a dominating innovation—an innovation that gives its possessor the power to dominate rivals. The last dominating innovation was nuclear weapons. And like nuclear weapons, the impact hypersonics will have will last only as long as one society has a monopoly on it. Once everyone gets it, the power differential fades and parity is restored (though it will continue to separate those with it from those without it).
So, societies will invest billions in hypersonic technology, and it will likely happen one day, but it won’t be the game-changer that each nation hopes it will be. Of course, the United States will need to develop this technology just to keep pace with rivals, but no one should expect any major power shifts. The real benefit will be the commercial spin-offs that come from its development.
Source:
Barbara Starr and Oren Liebermann, “US Air Force to Launch Ultra-fast Hypersonic Missile,” CNN, 6 April 2021; retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/06/politics/air-force-hypersonic-missile-test/index.html
Valerie Insinna, “First Flight Test for US Air Force’s Hypersonic Booster Didn’t Go As Planned,” Defense News, 6 April 2021, retrieved from https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/04/06/the-first-flight-test-of-the-air-forces-air-launched-hypersonic-booster-didnt-go-as-planned/
Andrew Chuter, “Reaction Engines Chases the Elusive Prospect of a Hypersonic Fighter Jet,” Defense News, 15 March 2021, retrieved from https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/03/15/reaction-engines-chases-the-elusive-prospect-of-a-hypersonic-fighter-jet/
Tom Bussing, “Winning the Hypersonic Race is a National Imperative,” Defense News, 10 January 2021, retrieved from https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/01/10/winning-the-hypersonic-race-is-a-national-imperative/
Photo: Reaction Engines
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