Russia has massed 127,000 troops on its border with Ukraine. Putin has demanded that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO, but NATO has dismissed this. So Russia sets the pretext for invasion: its media calls Ukraine a “protectorate,” the Kremlin issues 500,000 passports to Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and Putin states the need to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians—often a precursor for invasion.
In response, NATO has prepared a 40,000-troop rapid response force, to which the US has committed 8,500 personnel. The EU has committed $1.4 billion in loans and grants to Ukraine; while the US security package, totaling $200 million, has already arrived. Whether NATO actively fights is unclear, but it certainly intends to be a deterrence.
Putin’s motives are commonly known. He wants to re-establish Russia as a strong state. He wants a buffer-zone of nations around Russia. Ukraine’s drift west embarrasses Russia since they have a common origin. A thriving western-oriented Ukraine undermines his authoritarian regime. Less known, however, is that there is a greater issue. Putin is playing the long game. By the end of the 21st century, adjacent nations will begin forming into unions—this is the next step in world progression. (See World Leadership chapter 14 for background on this.) The border between Ukraine and Russian will become the border between the European Union and the Eurasian Union. Putin knows this—he formed the Eurasian Economic Union in 2014. If he lets Ukraine go now, it will never return to the fold. He has to act now to prevent this from happening.
Putin may not have expected so strong a reaction from the West, especially after he annexed Crimea without a shot fired in anger. However, his old Soviet tactic of bullying nations is backfiring: 58% of Ukrainians want to join NATO, and 62% want to join the European Union. In the future, nation-unions will form because it will make economic sense for them to do so. Europe relies so heavily on Russia for oil, trade, and finance, that perhaps Putin should have offered more honey instead of vinegar.
Source:
Caroline Vakil, “Part of US Military Support Package Arrives in Ukraine,” The Hill, 22 January 2022; accessed from https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/590893-part-of-us-military-support-package-arrives-in-ukraine
Barbara Starr and Jeremy Herb, “US Places up to 8,500 Troops on Alert for Possible Deployment to Eastern Europe amid Russian Tensions,” CNN, 24 January 2022; accessed from https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/24/politics/biden-troops-europe/index.html
Robyn Dixon, “For Putin, Ukraine Embodies Ultimate Battle with the West,” Washington Post, 12 December 2021, A1; see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/11/russia-ukraine-putin/
Photo: Sky News
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