Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, forcing us back into the days when nations thought nothing of overrunning smaller neighbors. The Soviet Union did this during the Winter War, fought against Finland from November 1939 to March 1940. A comparison of the two highlights both how war has changed over time and perhaps how Ukraine might succeed against overwhelming odds.
Finland stymied the Soviet invasion by relying on maneuver, terrain, climate, and ambushes. By the time Stalin accepted a Peace Treaty, the Red Army had suffered five times the casualties of the Finnish Army. While Ukraine doesn’t have the terrain and climate advantages Finland had, perhaps it can gain some of the same benefits from cyber-attacks against logistics targets and command-and-control centers, which could slow the assault. Ending the war requires the international community to isolate and shut-down the Russian economy. Measures against oligarchs are not enough—the pain must be felt by the entire Russian population. Only then will they put pressure on Putin to resolve the crisis. Finally, young people around the world have a connectedness previous generation never had, one born of social media. While Putin has taken down Twitter and Facebook, finding new ways to convey truth to the younger generation (e.g., Ukrainians don’t see Russian forces as liberators) could help generate a popular response against the war.
In the 80 years since the Winter War, war has changed and so has strategy. Ground forces are still essential. However, computerization has opened up a cyber front and a social front, as well. Globalization has made the economy a more immediate front. An effective strategy considers all of these.
Whether Ukraine can pull-off an upset as did the Finns remains to be seen. Doing so would require help from the international community. And the international community has a vested interest in the outcome: it can reinforce that the days of one country rolling over another are over, or it can simply standby. No doubt Taiwan is awaiting the outcome.
Source:
Yahoo News, 3/2/2022
“Winter War,” Wikipedia, accessed 4 March 2022.
Photo: McGrath, Getty Images
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