Immigration policy tends to be a difficult area for most countries; however, two new sources shed light on the subject: a recent study on the history of immigration, and Japan, which just recorded its lowest number of births in more than a century.
In Streets of Gold: America’s Untold Story of Immigrant Success, economists Ran Abramitzky and Leah Boustan use digitized records, new data analysis techniques, and Ancestry platforms to unlock new insights on immigration. The authors conclude that “Immigration contributes to a flourishing American society” though there are caveats. The rags-to-riches story is largely a myth—immigrants that became wealthy in America came from well-to-do backgrounds in their home countries. Poor immigrant families generally made it into the middle-class but only after one or two generations. Immigrant surges did not displace American workers because they take jobs that would go unfilled or would be filled by a machine. While the study highlights immigration’s benefits, Japan highlights the consequences of its absence. In Japan, the fertility rate has dropped to 1.3 children per woman, while 2.1 is required to sustain a population through births. Despite this, Japan retains some of the most restrictive immigration policies in the world. Japan has historically feared that immigration would dilute its homogeneity and culture, so today, most blue-collar guest-workers cannot stay longer than five years and cannot bring their families with them. The result is an aging population and impending labor shortages.
Population is one of four leadership power sources, and it has to be managed well for a society to maintain its influence. This includes having an effective immigration policy. (Note that this is different from having effective border controls, though the two can be related).
As baby boomers retire, America is expecting a labor shortage and will need to address this through immigration or automation, or both. Japan is already experiencing a labor shortage and will continue to lose economic power and influence. While it is loosening some labor restrictions, its measures are considered modest at best. For them, trading-off influence for homogeneity may be a choice they’re willing to make.
Source: Michael Luca, “What the Data Really Says About Immigration,” Washington Post, 12 June 2022, B1; see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/06/10/what-research-really-says-about-american-immigration/
Source: Claire Parker, “As Births Continue to Fall, Japan Records Its Largest Natural Population Decline,” Washington Post, 5 June 2022, A23; see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/03/japan-low-births-population-decline-2021/
Photo: Huffaker, Getty Images, AFP
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