On November 15, 2022, the world welcomed its 8 billionth person. The world’s population reached 4 billion only in 1974, so it has doubled in people in less than 50 years. However, scientists project that the world’s population will peak in the 2080s at roughly 10.4 billion. To understand why population growth is slowing, one only needs to look at China.
Sometime this year, India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country. Right now, they both have 1.4 billion people. China’s population actually peaked last year and over the last seven years, its birthrate has dropped by half. Sociologists cite rising education levels, increased wealth, and an urbanizing population as the main factors. Some also cite the rising cost of raising children and the increased freedom and autonomy of women. Perhaps the most salient impact of the declining birthrate is that China will age. The elderly will grow from 13 percent of the population to one-third by 2050. This means China will lose nearly 150 million workers by 2040, undoubtedly putting a drag on its economy.
While a declining population could impact China’s position as a world power, it would be premature to count it out. Leadership power is based on four factors: population, per capita wealth, military strength, and foreign reach. While China is losing population, it could make strides in the other three sources and retain influence. China’s GDP is only one-fourth that of the US, today; so, a small gain could have outsized effect on leadership power. Also, China is investing heavily in its military and already has substantial foreign reach.
To combat the effects of an aging population, China is raising its retirement age from 60 for men and 50 for women to 65 for both. It also desires to replace up to 240 million retiring workers with robots and automation. Finally, China has shifted from a One Child Policy to a Three Child Policy, hoping to spur the birthrate with tax cuts and housing subsidies. However, so far, few young and upwardly mobile women have been convinced by this to settle down and have families.
Source:
“China, Where Population is Shrinking,” Time, 4/1/2023.
“Population,” United Nations, 2022; accessed from https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population#
Photo: Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
No responses yet