Russia massed nearly 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border in April. The build-up began after Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, implemented pro-Western reforms, limited the power of oligarchs, and shutdown pro-Russian media outlets. While Russia withdrew some troops in early-May, senior Department of Defense officials believe Russia still has about 80,000 troops near the border, and the departed units left behind trucks, tanks, and armored vehicles, indicating an eventual return.
The build-up is a signal that Russia could match, or even dwarf, the force NATO is using in Defender Europe, an annual two-month exercise where roughly 28,000 troops maneuver across Albania and Eastern Europe. It is also a signal that Putin does not want NATO membership offered to Ukraine. It is also a test of Biden Administration resolve, to see how far it will go to support Ukraine.
Ukraine is vital to Putin’s plan to re-form a quasi-Soviet bloc alliance. Ukraine and Russia share a common origin and the idea that a former brother-nation wants no part of it disrupts the narrative Putin is trying to create. Some experts also see this as evidence of Putin’s “near abroad” strategy, where he treats independent neighbors as vassal states. (Putin told Zelensky that he would only meet with him if Zelensky came to the Kremlin.) Equally important, Putin’s popularity is declining at home (though he still has an approval rating above 60%). This is mostly due to slow growth, poor job prospects, and massive corruption. Massing a hundred-thousand troops helps to bolster his masculine, populist image.
In an April, Zelensky said “Ukraine and Russia, despite their common past, look to the future differently.” This divergence of government philosophies, with Ukraine tending toward democracy and Russia bending more autocracy, threatens Putin. While it is unlikely that Russian troops will actually cross into Ukraine, this exercise delivers a strong message to the reformist president that he cannot go but so far to avoid angering his northern neighbor.
Source: Isabelle Khurshudyan, David L Stern, Loveday Morris, John Hudson, “Russia masses troops near Ukraine in a display of clout,” Washington Post, 11 Apr 2021, A1
Helene Cooper, Julian E Burns, “80,000 Russian Troops Remain at Ukraine Border as US and NATO Hold Exercises, ” New York Times, 5 May 2021, accessed at https://time.com/6004236/russia-ukraine-border-putin/
Ian Bremmer, “Why Putin Flexed His Military Muscle on Ukraine’s Border,” Time, 29 April 2021, accessed https://time.com/6004236/russian-ukraine-border-putin
Zahra Ullah, Anna Chernova, Eliza Mackintosh, “Russia pulls back troops after massive building near Ukraine,” CNN, 23 Apr 2021, accessed https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/22/europe/russia-military-ukraine-border-exercises-intl/index.html
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