The Scottish National Party (SNP) made a strong showing in elections earlier this month. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s party finished with 64 of 129 seats, just shy of an outright majority. The SNP takes this as a sign that the Scottish independence movement is as strong as ever.
The SNP has been a long-time backer of Scottish independence from the UK. Sturgeon vowed to make an independence referendum a priority once the COVID crisis passed. The first attempt at independence came in 2014, when the SNP-sponsored referendum lost 45-55%. Then BREXIT occurred in 2016, forcing Scotland out of the EU against its will—Scots opposed BREXIT, 38-62%. In recent years, interest in a second referendum has grown, peaking at 58% last year before falling back to a roughly even split since then.
Referendums are growing in popularity. Nations use them to extract a collective decision from its citizenry—direct democracy (as opposed to representative democracy). Social media and other communication technologies have made collective opinion-making more common and natural, so we can expect collective decision-making to follow and even accelerate. However, learning how to do this well is a challenge. Britain created its current situation because of a poorly executed BREXIT referendum that gave no special consideration to UK member countries. (Northern Ireland also voted against it.) As such, member nations don’t feel they’ve been heard and their bonds have weakened. The Scottish referendum is in many ways an attempt to undo BREXIT.
Because it is a constitutional matter, Scotland legally needs permission from the British Parliament to hold another referendum, something Parliament is unlikely to grant. (Oddly enough, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, champion of the BREXIT referendum, is now crying foul at the Scottish referendum: “I think a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless.”) Sturgeon wants to follow a legal process so the results will be recognized by both the UK and the world, hence the matter will likely end-up in Britain’s Supreme Court. Even if it fails, though, the issue is unlikely to go away—a recent poll of 16–34-year-olds found that 72% favor independence. It appears Scottish youth would rather hitch their futures to the EU than the UK.
Sources:
Karla Adams, William Booth, “Sturgeon Pledges 2nd Bid to Leave UK,” Washington Post, 9 May 2021, A22.
“Scottish election 2021: Nicola Sturgeon celebrates ‘historic’ SNP election win,” BBC, 9 May 2021, accessed from https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-57038039
Billy Perigo, “Scotland’s Nationalists Won a Big Election Victory. Could Scottish Independence Now Be on the Cards?” Time, accessed from https://time.com/6047206/scottish-elections-independence/
Photo: Reuters
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