France, Columbia, and Spain had elections in June, and in each case, they revealed a disenfranchised and fragmented electorate. Voters moved away from established parties but not toward any single direction; rather they embraced a variety of political positions.
In recent years, there has been a worldwide pattern of political outliers winning elections, then once those outliers become mainstream, voters look for someone else. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron came to power after France’s two traditional parties collapsed. Yet in the most recent election, the party Macron founded lost seats to parties on the extreme left and right. Likewise, in Columbia, its two ruling parties collapsed and neither fielded a presidential candidate. A former guerilla fighter won with 50.4 percent of the vote. Between 2015 and 2019, Spain held four elections in search of a stable government, and Spain’s two-party system became a five-party system. Andalusia, a traditionally socialist province, recently embraced the conservative Populist party. Even in the US, outlier Donald Trump won the 2016 election, while outlier Bernie Sanders almost won the Democratic nomination.
In my book, World Leadership, I predicted that leading societies would begin looking for a new governance basis. (Rule-of-law is the current one.) The next one will involve more direct democracy, where people vote on issues directly rather than through representatives. The current electoral disenfranchisement and fragmentation is consistent with this direction as people become more frustrated that their views are not being adequately represented in the circles of power. It appears that this trend is fueled in part by social media, which can delegitimize a candidate, mobilize opposing candidates, or quickly amass funds from the small donations of many people.
In the US, 62% of Americans cite the need for a 3rd party—the highest ever. Other parts of the world are looking at authoritarianism as a viable alternative. The world will eventually come to a point where societies will choose to move either forward or backward. The question is how well will we all co-exist when this happens.
Source:
Richard H Pildes, “It’s Not Just Us. Western Democracies are Fragmenting,” Washington Post, 17 Jul 2022, B1; see also https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/07/15/elections-france-spain-colombia-democracies/
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